The Aussie's Divergence from GOLD

The Aussie usually trades in line with the price of GOLD gaining more correspondance contrary to the Dollar. The AUDUSD recently diverged from the price of spot GOLD which gives me the notion that this pair will soon correct itself if GOLD continues to appreciate. We have key support around .6980 with a 3 year low at .6900. We could see more appreciation around the new "Year" if Gold continues to rise above the price of the Dollar.

Let's see how the Dice Roll...

The Yen as the Safe Haven (12.20.18)

After the BOJ Decision, markets seem to gravitate towards the YEN and GOLD as safe Havens to counter FED Rate Hikes and market uncertainty. Ironically, the YEN has been the "GOTO" pair versus U.S Equities since Aug 2013.




Let's see how long this Divergence in indexes will play out...

The Dollar (DXY) and Spot Gold (GC) Hit Key Pivot Points

The dolllar (DXY) and spot Gold (GC) are trading a key pivot levels amid market volatility and uncertainty. I will be observant around these levels as markets intend to slow down for U.S Holidays. Major movements around these levels could set a trend leading into the next year.




Let's see how the Dice Rolls...

GBPUSD 12.9.18

Perfect Setup.. Less words more execution is what you expect from this Blog..

EURUSD 12.6.18

#EURUSD seems to be struggling at 1.1400 price levels. I'm still cautious of $DXY volatility around this time especially after U.S Equity reopening today from yesterday's shutdown. We could see a Friday sell off if the Dollar Gains Strength.

Let's see how the dice roll.

SPY 11.30.18

$SPY has been creeping up this week after dropping from a sell-off in previous weekly sessions. The slaughter may not be over as volume diminishes near previous levels of resistance. If sellers take control, we could see another drop around $277 as markets wrap up for the week.


Let's see how the dice roll.

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Market Sentiment 8.19.18

Saturday Workflow 8.18.18

Doing some Saturday Night Homework on the FX Market. As you can see, the currency market is heavily Bearish....


P.S I build all these spreadsheets myself..

Let's See How the Dice Roll..

Putting Fire to the Turkey....

As the Turkish Lira continues to plunge, it could send ripple affect across the markets especially in the emerging markets as this currency crisis turns into a DEBT crisis. Turkey's president is taken little measures to prevent the slide even suggesting contrary approaches to traditional measures such as raising rates. We could see more depreciation in the near future which could extent into areas where commodities may become more volatile in in pricing.


Below is a list of Emerging Markets ETF's which ironically ALL are down for the year. We could see more appreciation if measures are not met and markets continue to sell-off..


Let's see how the dice roll..

USDCAD Heads Towards Key Support

USDCAD heads towards 1.2950 Support as the dollar consolidates while the Canadian dollar still shows room for growth. Strong Crude Prices could help the Canadian dollar rally furthers as $75 Crude is its overall medium price.

Lets see how the dice roll...

From Corporate America to Corporate 3rd World...

Traditionally, the "Big 3" credit agencies ( Moody's, S&P, and Fitch) have dominated that market in rating bonds from countries to corporations. As the world changes as well as the market, new agencies are stepping up to the forefront to ignite a different outlook on how we rate current markets.

Besides the traditional three, there are seven major credit agencies that give their ratings and perspective for investor discretion and preference. Among the seven, Dagong based out of China is taken unprecedented majors to accurately rate the current debt market and coming crisis.

In 2011, S&P was the first agency to downgrade U.S debt from AAA to AA+ in history due to the current administrations decision to raise the debt level. This downgrade lead to further cuts from minor firms in the following years even Fitch downgraded and then upgrading the country's rating a year after. Aside from the "traditioners", Dagong was the only agency to downgrade and consistently downgrade U.S debt years to follow to a current rating of BBB+ (Negative Outlook). This current rating is a result of the U.S's continuation from one administration to the next to raise the "debt ceiling" increasing the overall deficit to a current $19.8 Trillion.

Rising Interest Rates

The current administrations number one objective is to raise interest rates to level the equity markets, but also taking massive tax cuts which will reduce it's ability to balance (not pay off) it's deficit. This could be seen as a paradox which such firms a Dagong have taken the initiative to foresee what these actions could bring in the near future. Aside from that, U.S Corporate bonds are bought mainly from pension funds, insurers, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth funds which in turned are backed by the Federal Reserve bond purchases and sold through U.S Treasuries. So what happens when U.S Treasuries become less attractive?

(This is a chart of 30-Year Bond rates which include inflation and interest rates. Take note, the "debt ceiling" has continuously been raised)

To Name a Few

This is just one of the many factors on why China is taken a prominent stance in it's region and abroad mainly because it's still the number holder of U.S debt. So when this debt becomes less attractive to buy, China will feel the effect more than any other nation. Current trade wars (tariffs) could be seen as one lender (China) responding to a borrowers actions to make the lender pay for is outstanding debt. Tariffs will only fuel more trade wars as China has no other option than to retaliate. As Dagong is set to compete with the "traditional 3", we will see a rise from other credit agencies that see the affect the current market will have on emerging markets and the economy as a whole leading into the future.

Until then, let's see how the dice roll.

USPJPY Retreats from Key Resistance

USDJPY retreats from key resistance around 110.55 as the FED hikes rates a quarter percentage Wednesday (June 13, 2018). Confirmation of further depreciation will depend heavily on the YEN as markets remain uncertainty of U.S/ Korean Diplomacy. The Dollar Index remains consolidated around 94.00- 93.50 area for the week.

Lets' see how the dice rolls...

USDCHF Faces Short Term Support

USDCHF faces short term support around .9770 leading to the close of this weekly session. We could see a bounce to .9825 levels, but a breakout below this level of support could lead to further depreciation around .9700 levels.

Let's see how the dice rolls..

Bitcoin Futures Headed Toward a New Low

Bitcoin Futures haven't seen a New High since insertion. We may be headed towards a Lower Low...

Cleveland Cliff's Inc

$CLF is a mining company that moves in line with the price of Silver. You can literally play Silver's trading range with this stock... 

USDCHF Approaches Key Levels of Resistance

With recnt Dollar strength and Weakness in the Swiss Franc, the USDCHF has been on a 4-Month Bullish Rally. A break out or break down at 1.0120 levels will confirm whether this rally will continue for another streak.

Let's see how the dice roll..

Twitter's User Activity has been Steaming...

Despite the recent outlash and rants, Twitter ($TWTR) has received an increase in user activity and traffic (human capital). I expect revenue from marketing for this company to exceed expectations next quarter as tensions heat up.


Technically, look for the pull back to $30.20 with $29.60ish behind a key area of support. A breakout above $31.15 will confirm Yearly highs will be tested.


Let's see how the dice roll...

Silver Could Break it's 15-Month Range

The inter-Korean Summit Friday has seen to be one of the biggest moves in the ASIAN Territory in decades. With current trade wars with China and the U.S, this move from North Korea is essential for China's stance in this region as U.S/ South Korean trade negotiations are still pending. Charts below will show the significance of China's presence in this area and how the U.S trading presence is scarce and diminishing.


North Korea's Trading Partners

South Korea's Trading Partners

Silver is mined 80% for industrial purposes and is the most conducive metal used in electronics. South Korea's production of electronics with emphasis on Televisions and Cellular/Telephones indicates is its demand for the commodity for exporting its key products. A strong connection with North Korea will only increase the Korean Peninsula's reliance on China. China increased presence in this area will only bolster trade and its position in the "Maritime Disputes" within the region.

Technically, Silver has been bouncing in the $21.00 and $14.50 Range for 5 Years.

Only recently has it been consolidating between $18.50 and $15.50 giving $15.50 a good buy range for all corresponding FUTURES, Equities, and ETFs. Since Silver is mined from Iron Ore, I expect one the worlds biggest Iron Ore producers (AUSTRALIA) to step on the scene as the demand increases.

Until then, this was a strategic move for China giving the U.S limited options to maneuver and be a diplomatic strength in this region.


Let's see How the Markets react.

AUDUSD Extends Losses

AUDUSD extends losses against a stronger dollar. We could see further depreciation into .7420 levels as this month concludes..

USDJPY Extends 5-Week Run

USDJPY extends 5-week Run as trade tension cool with China. We could see short-term Resistance around 110.50 leading into the next Month.

EURUSD Breaks 2-month Trading Range

EURUSD breaks 2-month Trading Range as the dollar Strengthens during European opening Session. We could see further depreciation towards 1.2010 Range leading into May.

USDCAD Showing Bullish Tendency on Crude Pullback

USDCAD is showing Bullish Tendecies as Crude retraces with a stronger dollar. We got short-term resistance around 1.2885 levels. A break out above this level could be headed towards 1.2950 territory.

Is this a Coincidence?

I usually tease individuals that use Mercury Retrograde as means to justify human behavior, but after studying market trends around these times I found something quite interesting. Usually around the retrograde area (area) the markets experiences a high level or uncertainty and volatility.


Is this a coincidence?


Does Mercury Retrograde's affect on human behavior really plays a role on how market participants trade?


You do the Math...